"Earth to DHHS. Earth to DHHS. Come in, please..."

As noted in earlier posts (here and here) China is stepping up plans to deal with a possible human version of bird flu. Now we learn that the UK is also drawing up plans, to include providing antivirals for key health and emergency services workers, closing down schools and public places like movie theaters, and quarantining victims' families.

Dr Douglas Fleming, Director of the Royal College of [General Practitioners'] Birmingham Research Unit said: "The idea that an outbreak may happen this year, next year, or in the next 10 years, is speculative.

"But we should all welcome the fact the government is planning in case it does happen.

"I believe our best hope as far as pandemic management is concerned is to stockpile anti-virals.

"The prospect of a vaccine becoming available, in sufficient time and sufficient quantity to curtail a pandemic, seems much less likely."

Meanwhile, the US is. . . doing what, exactly?

According the Executive Summary of a Draft Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan from the Department of Health and Human Services dated August 2004 (4 months ago),

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) continues to make progress in preparing to effectively respond to an influenza pandemic. This has been done through programs specific for influenza and those focused more generally on increasing preparedness for bioterrorism and other emerging infectious disease health threats. Substantial resources have been allocated to assure and expand influenza vaccine production capacity; increase influenza vaccination use; stockpile influenza antiviral drugs in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS); enhance U.S. and global disease detection and surveillance infrastructures; expand influenza-related research; support public health planning and laboratory; and improve health care system readiness at the community level.

Excuse me?

Substantial resources have been allocated to assure and expand influenza vaccine production capacity; increase influenza vaccination use; stockpile influenza antiviral drugs in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS); ... and improve health care system readiness at the community level.

Maybe I can be forgiven If I have my doubts. Resources allocated to assuring and expanding influenza vaccine production capacity? Sure, and they just let a contract to Chiron Corporation to do human trials of a new H5N1 vaccine. Chiron is the company that sent half the US vaccine source down the toilet. Stockpile antivirals? Yeah, enough oseltamivir for a couple percent of the US population, compared to one third or more for the UK and still climbing. Improved the health care system readiness at the community level?

"Earth to DHHS, Earth to DHHS. Come in, please!"

The DHHS document gets one thing right:

Characteristics of an influenza pandemic that must be considered in preparedness and response planning include: 1) simultaneous impacts in communities across the U.S., limiting the ability of any jurisdiction to provide support and assistance to other areas; 2) an overwhelming burden of ill persons requiring hospitalization or outpatient medical care; 3) likely shortages and delays in the availability of vaccines and antiviral drugs; 4) disruption of national and community infrastructures including transportation, commerce, utilities and public safety; and 5) global spread of infection with outbreaks throughout the world.

At least they know how bad it will be.